Why & How we should study AI & Machine Learning (6 Easy Steps)

Disruptive Technologies - Friend or Foe of the CTO ? - Part 3 

 GAUGING THE POTENTIAL OF DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGIES

While the CTO comes across a wide range of disruptive Technologies, he needs gauge their potential for disruption He brings a few of them into his fold for business attention in the short and medium term. He places the other Technologies on his radar and monitors how they evolve in the long-term. Readers who are familiar with Gartner hype cycle [ https://www.gartner.com/smarterwithgartner/top-trends-in-the-gartner-hype-cycle-for-emerging-technologies-2017/ ] will appreciate the importance of insights into these trends. The CTO’s job is lot more complex than monitoring the hype cycles – he needs to track the development at multiple levels - the sub-system, system and super system. In the case of the CTO of an Automotive OEM, gauging the potential of disruptors in the electric vehicles (EV) space, he has to gauge the potential of new technologies such as

(a)   at the sub-system level - Battery and Motor

Lithium ion battery materials – cathode materials – formulations with less Cobalt or no Cobalt - Silicon based anodes, recycling of Lithium, Cobalt etc.

New magnet materials for the electric motors - rare earths Pr Nd etc. - alternative motor designs that don't need Rare Earth materials etc

the CTO ability to scout for new technologies and make early investments will help him to mitigate risk arising from rising price and limited availability of critical materials for battery and electric motor.

(b)   at the system level – the electric vehicle (EV)

the CTO has to evaluate technologies that can extend the range of the EV - lightweight materials that can reduce the weight of EV  (aluminum magnesium alloys, fiber reinforced composites etc) - technologies that improve the safety, thermal management of battery pack,  energy management of EV etc

(c)    at the super system level - the charging of EV

the CTO has to evaluate the convergence of at least three Technologies – fast charging, wireless charging and solar charging. With the recent demonstration of dynamic wireless charging many concerns about limited range of have been resolved.

When the CTO looks at the EV space at these three levels, he has to constantly quantify the performance of these Technologies. He may have to track the cost of energy storage of lithium ion battery knowing that EV will become economically more attractive than ICE when the cost crosses USD 100 per kwh.. He may have to track the time required for 80% charging for various fast charging Technologies and predict if 30 minutes charging is a realistic threshold value to flip the scales and accelerate the urban diffusion of EV. He should also have a good comparison of cost of recycling versus mining for Lithium and Cobalt and invest on recycling Technologies well before the demand exceeds the supply. Whether it is the battery’s energy density or the charging time or the density of charging stations or the cost of Cobalt, the CTO has to quantify certain performance versus cost parameters. He has to visualize variety of future scenarios examples – (a) Scenario A - ICE fuel efficiency increases by 10% and the fuel price Falls by 30%  (b) Scenario B - the Cobalt price has doubled and the demand of lithium ion battery materials has doubled due to drones and Smartphones industries (c) Scenario C – the LIDAR price has reduced to USD 100 and your competitor has announced that their new model has no LIDAR in it. The CTO’s ability to visualize future scenarios and his quick response when any of these scenarios happen will be the key to his success.